Clay County Housing Market Update – March 2026: Prices Down, But Still a Seller’s Market?
This report is for single family homes in Clay County, which covers Middleburg, Fleming Island, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs and Keystone Heights.
I’ve changed the format a little, adding a graph, but still keeping the text only graph. So, make sure you scroll down for both.
The Clay County market is still technically a seller’s market, but it doesn’t feel quite as strong as it used to. Prices are down about 3.7% year over year, and inventory has dropped to 3.3 months, which keeps things competitive. At the same time, homes are selling a little faster, and sellers are getting about 94.9% of their list price… so yes, there’s still some negotiating going on.
What this really means is we’re moving toward a more balanced market. Homes are still selling, but pricing and strategy matter a lot more right now, for both buyers and sellers. Weird times in the real estate market.
The latest mortgage rates can be found at Mortgage Daily News. So when you see them they are in real time and do not reflect the March 2026 timeline. Just to give you a rough idea on payment, if the median sales price is $364,000, with 10% down and a rate of 6.44%, you are looking at a payment around $1,829 per month. This payment is just principal and interest, without taxes and insurance. Conventional loan.
What This Means If You’re Buying Right Now
Last year we saw more homes available than this year, but buyers are still seeing less pressure to be able to have more time to choose the right house. Houses are taking longer to go under contract. That said, well-priced homes are still moving quickly, so strategy matters more than ever. Even though the numbers show a seller’s market, there is more opportunities for buyers. If you want to know what you can actually get in today’s market, I can break that down for you, just message me:
What This Means If You’re Selling
Sellers can still sell in today’s market, but pricing correctly is critical. We’re seeing homes reduce price by around 5-6%, which means buyers are still negotiating. Overpricing right now can cause your home to sit longer than expected. If you’re thinking about selling, I can show you exactly where your home would fall in today’s market. Click:
Should You Wait to Buy or Sell?
This is the question I get all the time, but I can’t answer it for you. Only you know your situation the best and do not need a real estate agent telling you what to do.
Prices are down slightly, inventory is still limited, and the market is shifting,but that doesn’t automatically mean you should wait. Waiting could give you more options… or it could cost you more if rates or prices move the other way. It really depends on your situation.
If you want help figuring out the timing, text me at 904-910-3516 “TIMING” and I’ll help you map it out.
Median Sales Price: Looking at sold homes it means that half the homes that sold were more than 364,000 and the other half were less than 364,000.
Month’s Inventory: Based on the number of actives and homes that have sold it would take 3.30 months to sell the active homes, if no other homes came on the market. How to determine what type of market we are experiencing:
Buyers’ Market: More than 7 months of Inventory
Balanced Market: From 5-7 months of Inventory
Sellers’ Market: Less than 5 months of inventory
Average Days on the Market: This is the average based on the time the house came on the market until is went under contract.
Original List Price to Sales Price: This is the percentage of what the home sold for compared to what it was originally listed for. Not what it was listed for at the time it went under contract.
I’m Pam Graham, a Northeast Florida real estate consultant, which includes Jacksonville, Clay & St John’s Counties. I break down the market in layman’s terms so you can make smart decisions—whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on what’s happening.
Call/Text 904-910-3516
Email: pam@pamgraham.com
